Oregon voters narrowly passed Measure 114 in 2022, a sweeping gun control ballot initiative that created a permit‑to‑purchase requirement and banned magazines over 10 rounds. The measure has never actually gone into effect, however, because it’s been tied up in ongoing court battles and implementation has now been delayed by lawmakers until at least 2028.
Like other West Coast states, Oregon has become a testing ground for gun control via ballot initiative. Washington has already used the process to pass multiple restrictions, including expanded background checks and so‑called “assault weapon” and magazine regulations, giving gun control advocates a roadmap for using direct democracy to bypass legislatures, especially in blue states, and sometimes even in red‑leaning ones.
But Measure 114 triggered a backlash that gun control supporters didn’t anticipate. A new study by researchers from Oregon State University, the University of Oregon, and the National Bureau of Economic Research found a massive surge in firearm demand tied directly to the measure. Background checks, used as a proxy for gun purchases, rose about 14% in the weeks before the election, then exploded by roughly 157% immediately after the measure passed.
Over the first 18 months, the researchers estimate roughly 63,000 additional background checks occurred that would not have happened without Measure 114, with the biggest spikes in counties that voted against the initiative.
Not every background check results in a single gun sale; some checks end with no purchase, while others involve multiple firearms—meaning the true number of guns added to Oregon’s stock is likely higher than the background check count alone. The study’s authors note that even if Measure 114 eventually takes effect, it will take more than a year just to get the number of guns in Oregon back down to where it would have been had the measure never passed.
The political divide driving this surge is part of a broader geographic split in the state. Many rural, eastern counties, especially those closer to Idaho, have backed the “Greater Idaho” movement, which seeks to leave Oregon and join Idaho in pursuit of more conservative representation and looser gun laws.
What’s happening in Oregon fits a familiar pattern: whenever politicians or ballot campaigns move to restrict firearms, magazines, or ammunition, gun owners respond by buying more.
Measure 114 was supposed to reduce the number of guns in Oregon. Instead, it sparked a rush to the gun counter and deepened the divide between urban gun control supporters and rural gun owners who refuse to be disarmed.
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